WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025–2029)

Why in News? The WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025–2029), released on May 28, 2025, has garnered significant attention due to its stark warnings about global warming.

The report highlights the increasing risk of breaching the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target, driven by record-breaking temperatures in 2023 and 2024.

Relevance : UPSC Pre &  Mains

Prelims : Report’s important points/ Org & conventions related to climate change

Mains :   GS 1-Geography/Env.

It has sparked widespread discussions on social media and in global media, emphasizing the urgent need for climate action to address the deepening climate crisis and its far-reaching impacts.

Key Findings of the Report

Temperature Projections:

1. • Global mean near-surface temperatures for 2025–2029 are projected to be 1.2°C to 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900).
   • There is a 70% chance that the five-year average warming will exceed 1.5°C.
   • An 80% chance exists that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
   • Long-term warming (decadal average) is expected to remain below 1.5°C
   •  suggesting no permanent breach within this period.

Record-Breaking Heat Continuation:

1. • Global temperatures are likely to remain at or near record highs, following unprecedented heat in 2023 and 2024.
   • The report underscores a worsening climate crisis, with rising temperatures fueling extreme weather events.

Other Climate Impacts:

1. • Intensified climate impacts include melting ice, shifting precipitation patterns, and rising sea levels.
   • These changes threaten ecosystems, agriculture, and human livelihoods globally.

Scientific and Policy Implications:

1. • The report stresses the narrowing window to limit warming to 1.5°C, urging immediate climate action.
   • Discussions on platforms like X highlight concerns that the report may understate the risk of permanently exceeding 1.5°C this decade.

Accelerated Arctic Warming

• The Arctic region is projected to warm at a rate over 5 times the global average, with temperatures anticipated to rise by 2.4°C above the 1991-2020 baseline during the next five extended winters (November to March). This significant warming highlights the increasing vulnerability of polar ecosystems and the critical need for targeted climate action.

Sea-Ice Reductions

• Further declines in sea-ice concentration are expected in key areas such as the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk by March 2025-2029. These reductions could lead to changes in marine biodiversity, oceanic currents, and weather patterns across the globe.

Shifting Precipitation Patterns

The May-September 2025-2029 period is likely to witness significant regional variations in precipitation:

• Wetter-than-Average Conditions: The Sahel region in Africa, Northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia are expected to receive increased rainfall.
• Drier-than-Average Conditions: The Amazon is forecasted to experience reduced precipitation, raising concerns about its impact on the rainforest and biodiversity.

 South Asian Monsoon Trends:

• South Asia, which has generally seen wetter-than-average conditions in recent years (except 2023), is predicted to maintain this trend through 2029. However, variations in individual monsoon seasons are likely, suggesting that regional water resources and agriculture might face unpredictable challenges.