daily Current Affairs for UPSC : 1 July 2025/New alliance of China – Pak- Bangladesh/China’s New Regional Trilateral Bloc

Why in News?  The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), established in 1985, has been a cornerstone for regional cooperation in South Asia. However, its inactivity since 2014, primarily due to India-Pakistan tensions, has prompted discussions about alternative regional blocs. Recent reports indicate that China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh are exploring a new trilateral bloc, potentially replacing SAARC.

What is the New Regional Trilateral Bloc?

• In June 2025, China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh held a trilateral meeting in Kunming, China, to discuss a new regional organization aimed at enhancing trade and connectivity.
• The initiative, led by China and Pakistan, seeks to include former SAARC members like Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Afghanistan, with an invitation extended to India. However, Bangladesh’s interim government clarified that the meeting was not political, stating, “We are not forming any alliance”. The bloc focuses on regional integration, infrastructure development, and economic cooperation, potentially aligning with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Key Objectives of the Trilateral Bloc:

• Enhanced Trade and Connectivity: The bloc aims to boost intra-regional trade, which is currently only 1% of SAARC’s GDP, compared to 10% for ASEAN.

• Regional Integration: It seeks to foster cooperation among South Asian nations, addressing SAARC’s stagnation due to geopolitical conflicts.

• Countering India’s Influence: Analysts suggest China aims to create a counterweight to India’s dominance in South Asia, leveraging Pakistan’s strategic position.

• Infrastructure Development: The bloc may integrate with projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Why is SAARC Inactive?

SAARC, comprising Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, has been dormant since its last summit in Kathmandu in 2014. The 2016 summit in Islamabad was canceled after India boycotted it following the Uri terror attack, with Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Afghanistan also withdrawing. Key reasons for SAARC’s inactivity include:

• India-Pakistan Tensions: Pakistan’s vetoing of initiatives like the SAARC Motor Vehicles Agreement and its alleged support for cross-border terrorism have stalled progress.

• Lack of Political Will: Geopolitical rivalries have hindered trust and cooperation among members.

• Low Intra-Regional Trade: SAARC’s intra-regional trade is minimal, limiting its economic impact.

India has shifted focus to alternative platforms like BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) and BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal), which exclude Pakistan and align with India’s regional strategy.

Can the New Trilateral Bloc Replace SAARC?

The proposed bloc has sparked debate about its potential to replace SAARC. Below is an analysis of its feasibility:

Arguments in Favor

• Addressing SAARC’s Stagnation: The new bloc could fill the void left by SAARC’s inactivity, focusing on practical areas like trade and connectivity.

• China’s Economic Influence: China’s financial and infrastructural support through BRI could attract smaller South Asian nations seeking investment.

• Inclusion of Non-SAARC Players: China’s involvement, as a non-SAARC observer, could broaden the bloc’s scope, potentially integrating with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

Challenges and Limitations:

• India’s Likely Non-Participation: Given strained India-China and India-Pakistan relations, India is unlikely to join, limiting the bloc’s regional legitimacy.

• Bangladesh’s Reluctance: Bangladesh’s interim government has explicitly denied forming a political alliance, which could hinder the bloc’s formation.

• Geopolitical Rivalries: The bloc may be perceived as a China-led counterweight to India, potentially deepening regional divisions.

• Overlap with Existing Frameworks: Countries like Nepal and Sri Lanka are already engaged in BIMSTEC and SCO, reducing the need for a new bloc.

India’s Strategic Response:

India has strengthened alternative platforms like BIMSTEC, which includes Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, and Thailand, excluding Pakistan. India’s focus on BIMSTEC, I2U2, and the Quad reflects a shift toward like-minded partnerships prioritizing security and connectivity. India may counter the new bloc by:

• Enhancing BIMSTEC’s role in regional cooperation.

• Offering economic incentives to smaller South Asian nations to reduce China’s influence.

• Strengthening strategic communication to project India as a non-hegemonic partner.