Daily Current Affairs for UPSC : 24 Jan 2026/ What is Thucydides’s Trap?

Defining Thucydides’s Trap

The term refers to the structural stress that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power.

• Origin: Named after the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who observed that the Peloponnesian War was made inevitable by the rise of Athens and the fear this instilled in Sparta.
• The Mechanism: It is not necessarily that either side wants war, but rather that the shifting balance of power creates a “spiral of insecurity” where every defensive move by one is seen as an offensive threat by the other.
• Historical Data: Graham Allison’s Harvard study reviewed 16 historical cases where a rising power rivaled a ruling power; 12 of those 12 resulted in war.

The US-China Rivalry: Modern Friction Points:

This highlights how this ancient pattern is manifesting in the 21st century across several “battlefields.”

1. Economic & Trade Competition:

• Shift in Dominance: China’s rapid GDP growth has moved it from the “world’s factory” to a direct competitor in high-value markets.
• Trade Wars: Use of tariffs and sanctions as tools to blunt the other’s economic momentum.

 The Technological “Cold War”:

• Strategic Supremacy: Competition over AI, 5G, semiconductors, and quantum computing.
• Decoupling: Efforts to move supply chains away from each other to ensure national security and technological independence.

1. Military Tensions (The Indo-Pacific):

• Flashpoints: Increased naval presence in the South China Sea and the status of Taiwan.
• Arms Race: Modernization of nuclear arsenals and the development of hypersonic missiles.

 

• Is Conflict Inevitable?

While the statistics (12 out of 16) are sobering, the theory also studies the 4 cases where war was avoided (e.g., the UK and the US in the early 20th century).

Factors for Peace:

• Nuclear Deterrence: Unlike the Greeks, both powers possess “Mutual Assured Destruction,” which raises the cost of war to an existential level.
• Economic Interdependence: The “Global Value Chain” makes war financially ruinous for both sides.
• Diplomatic Guardrails: The need for constant communication and “red lines” to prevent accidental escalation.
• The Power Shift

Feature	The Ruling Power (USA)	The Rising Power (China)
Primary Goal	Maintain the “Rules-Based Order”	Regain regional/global prominence
Core Fear	Decline and loss of influence	Containment and suppressed growth
Strategy	Strengthening alliances (AUKUS, Quad)	Infrastructure & influence (Belt and Road)